Those of us who are old enough will recall that Lotus 1–2–3 played a pivotal role in solidifying the IBM PC as a major platform in the world of personal computing during the 1980s. Released in 1983 by Lotus Development Corporation, 1–2–3 was not just a spreadsheet application; it revolutionized how businesses managed data by integrating spreadsheet, database management, and graphics capabilities into a user-friendly package. It played an essential role in making the original IBM Personal Computer and Microsoft’s DOS 1.1 (Disk Operating System) a standard.
The significance of Lotus 1–2–3 was its ability to address the practical needs of business professionals. Before its release, personal computers were often viewed as niche gadgets without straightforward business applications. 1–2–3 changed that perception by providing a powerful tool for financial modeling, data analysis, and scenario planning. The software’s seamless integration of spreadsheet calculations with database functions made it an invaluable asset for professionals in finance, accounting, and other data-intensive fields.
The success of Lotus 1–2–3 catalyzed the widespread adoption of the IBM PC in corporate environments. Businesses recognized the transformative potential of personal computers as serious tools for productivity and data management. Lotus 1–2–3’s popularity created a compelling narrative for the IBM PC, positioning it as a business-friendly platform capable of driving efficiency and innovation.
Moreover, 1–2–3’s dominance in the spreadsheet software market turned the IBM PC into a standard for office computing. It validated the IBM PC as a major platform and set the stage for the dominance of Microsoft’s operating system and office productivity suite in the years to come. In essence, Lotus 1–2–3 was instrumental in shaping the trajectory of personal computing by showcasing the practical and business-oriented capabilities of the IBM PC.
What Are The Lotus 1–2–3 Parallels with Apple’s Vision Pro?
The fundamental ideas behind creating a hugely successful consumer technology product have been available to the public since Apple’s early years of establishment. This ability involves analyzing the status quo market and developing a product that offers a comprehensive, albeit flawed, solution to a need; successfully communicating this value proposition to a sizable audience while collaborating with partners to deliver even more extensive options through software; and finally operationally providing the solution at scale with sufficient profitability to sustain the momentum. As I explained in the previous article, examining how Apple has consistently hit out of the park in a way that’s changed how the world works.
In simpler terms, Apple has an incredible opportunity to deliver a cohesive, compelling experience that Apple’s customers will want to buy into, and that (perhaps most importantly) Apple’s partners will want to add value to.
The essential question is this: what specific kind of worthwhile experience can Vision Pro offer that will enthrall us to the extent that enough of us will not only shell out a significant amount of money to acquire it but also decide as a society that this is something we want to pay for continuously, opening the door to a whole new ecosystem of immersive applications that must all be created and maintained?
This Objective is NOT Going To Be A Lay-Up…Even for Apple
Is there one standout among Apple’s Vision Pro apps that we know about?
Apple is more than just a creator of large-scale, solo pieces intending to “ express an idea.” A product must truly provide a life-changing level of value to a sizable audience willing to pay real money for it to “work” and be deemed at least somewhat successful. Additionally, it must aggressively stoke the interest of outside thinkers and inspire them to dedicate their careers to creating new, interconnected forms of entertainment, convenience, or utility that enhance existing products.
In the same way it did with the original Apple II, Mac, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and so forth, Apple is introducing a new physical product for sale and building an ecosystem of optional features. This fact sets Apple apart from other manufacturers whose products essentially offer a self-contained unit of value. Most importantly, Apple has done this before.
Much simpler rules of supply and demand dictate whether you receive a good deal at an acceptable price if the manufacturer can continue to meet their production objectives and whether the product is a hit or a disaster when you purchase a luxury appliance, a high-end car, or a coffee maker. That’s Capitalism 101.
Apple is introducing Vision Pro, an entire platform built on the idea that software adds value and makes a device much more valuable than a one-trick pony that performs a single task, like playing immersive games. The exciting thing about Apple is that the corporation excels at launching platforms in a world where potential platforms of all kinds are difficult, complex, and replete with the corpses of failures. Let’s face it: Apple excels at simplifying complex ideas like no other company in the universe.
Apple Will Have Lots of Competition
It should not be ignored that Apple is not the first significant player in this new field of “immersive computing.” Other influential tech companies have already spent vast sums of money to create something that looks similar. Qualcomm, NVIDIA, MediaTek, and others are making big bets in this category, and their efforts should not be trivialized.
Notably, Microsoft introduced the HoloLens helmet nearly seven years ago. At first glance, the HoloLens helmet and Vision Pro appear similar, including a $3,000 beginning price point. However, the world hasn’t significantly changed since HoloLens debuted as a “Development Edition” in early 2016, even though Federal government contractors have been funding the development of this intriguing technology.
After three successive generations and billions of dollars, HoloLens is a Windows PC powered by Intel with specialized graphics technology that allows it to superimpose projected pictures on top of your current screen. Immersion learning had the best chance to create a “killer app” that would boost sales; the U.S. military purchased a significant amount of it for training. It was a “killer” app in the most literal sense.
As most people know, the Holo development team found the idea so unsettling that many of their colleagues publicly protested because they were unhappy that their technology was being utilized for such an application of “war and oppression.”
Microsoft has a long and illustrious history of devising methods to use its Windows PC as a stand-in for a variety of product categories, including watches, tablets, music players, and phones. Nevertheless, these initiatives proved to be fruitless busywork that failed to significantly alter the world or produce successful or commercially meaningful goods.
Microsoft’s only move as the “opposite of Apple” in the consumer sphere is to shuffle around and suggest its one PC hit as a solution for new markets, but it never quite works out.
More to the point, HoloLens shows that even a business with a sizable Windows developer community and substantial financial resources cannot effectively market an “immersive computing” product to the general public, even when it restricts its target market to business users.
But without ever truly accomplishing any of its own, Microsoft was also an unmitigated disaster in the smartphone, tablet, music player, watch, and other categories that preceded Apple’s entry into those markets and, in some cases, attempted to reverse and replicate Apple’s delivered success. Therefore, there isn’t any proof that the public isn’t at least somewhat interested in immersive computing from the failure of HoloLens.
Of course, you could make the same charge about Intel, but that’s an entirely different column.
Nevertheless, It just demonstrates that large, well-funded PC licensing firms cannot accomplish tasks that Apple performs with the seemingly effortless style of a 3 trillion dollar, tenacious startup that has been around for 40 years.
What Might Apple’s Vision Pro “Killer” App Look Like?
A “killer” app for Apple’s forthcoming Vision Pro has the potential to be a game-changer, transforming the device from a cutting-edge gadget into an indispensable tool for users. Such an application would showcase the capabilities of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) and provide a unique and compelling experience that resonates with a broad audience.
One conceivable avenue for a killer app is in the realm of immersive productivity. I’m a massive fan of this usage model. Imagine an application seamlessly integrating with Apple’s productivity suite, allowing users to create, edit, and collaborate on documents and presentations in a three-dimensional space. With the Vision Pro’s advanced AR capabilities, users can manipulate virtual objects, arrange information spatially, and engage with their work in unimaginable ways. This scenario could redefine the concept of remote collaboration, enabling teams to work together as if they were in the same room, transcending the limitations of traditional video conferencing. For someone like me who does extensive video editing, which is a nightmare when traveling with my 14” MacBook Pro, the idea of having a virtual 90-inch display via Vision Pro excites me profoundly.
Entertainment is another area where a killer app could shine. Apple has a strong foothold in the entertainment industry through services like Apple Music and Apple TV+. A VR entertainment hub that transports users to virtual concerts, theaters, or immersive storytelling experiences could be a compelling addition. The Vision Pro’s high-quality display and advanced audio features could create an unparalleled entertainment experience, making it a must-have for users seeking a new dimension of digital leisure.
Health and fitness represent another promising avenue. A killer app could leverage the Vision Pro’s sensors to provide real-time feedback on physical activity, offer guided workouts in an augmented environment, or even simulate outdoor running experiences for users on a treadmill. The immersive nature of AR and VR could motivate users to stay active and healthy in ways that conventional fitness apps cannot match.
Education is yet another domain where Vision Pro could excel. An educational app could offer immersive learning experiences, taking students on virtual field trips, allowing them to interact with historical events, or providing hands-on simulations of complex concepts. This picture could revolutionize how we approach education, making it more engaging and accessible.
In essence, a killer app for the Apple Vision Pro would showcase the device’s technical capabilities and address users’ genuine needs and desires across various domains. Whether in productivity, entertainment, health, or education, the app would elevate the Vision Pro from a mere device to a transformative platform, shaping the future of how we work, play, and learn in the digital realm.
Don’t Bet Against Apple
While many of my brethren in the analyst community have already dismissed Vision Pro as nothing more than a glorified development platform because of its admittedly high $3,500 price point (without accessories), I believe Apple has a great shot of finally turning the AR and VR space into something much more meaningful than what Meta and a handful of others have done thus far. Apple is not interested in selling hundreds of thousands of units, though they might achieve that when Vision Pro finally ships in early 2024. They’re after mainstream volumes that can be measured in the millions. Undoubtedly, Apple has a roadmap with successor models to the Vision Pro that will reach more consumer-friendly price points.
I do agree that Apple’s success will largely depend on what those killer app (or apps) look like. As I’ve said, those killer apps will come from outside of Apple, just like Lotus 1–2–3 which wasn’t developed by IBM.
While $3,500 is indeed a premium price point, I remember with fondness working at IBM’s Product Center on Wall Street (the precursor to the Apple Store) as an intern and witnessing with amazement how Wall Street execs would, without hesitation, plop down $5,000 on their American Express cards to buy an IBM PC, Epson dot-matrix printer and Lotus 1–2–3 (which shipped on multiple floppy disks). Those, indeed, were the days.
I get the sense that history is about to repeat itself.
Mark Vena is the CEO and Principal Analyst at SmartTech Research based in Silicon Valley. As a technology industry veteran for over 25 years, Mark covers many consumer tech topics, including PCs, smartphones, smart home, connected health, security, PC and console gaming, and streaming entertainment solutions. Mark has held senior marketing and business leadership positions at Compaq, Dell, Alienware, Synaptics, Sling Media and Neato Robotics. Mark has appeared on CNBC, NBC News, ABC News, Business Today, The Discovery Channel and other media outlets. Mark’s analysis and commentary have appeared on Forbes.com and other well-known business news and research sites. His comments about the consumer tech space have repeatedly appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, TechNewsWorld and other news publications.
SmartTech Research, like all research and tech industry analyst firms, provides or has provided paid services to technology companies. These services include research, analysis, advising, consulting, benchmarking, acquisition or speaking sponsorships. Companies mentioned in this article may have utilized these services.
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